停火两周！美以伊冲突的“紧急调停人”为何是巴基斯坦？|Why Pakistan Brokeredthe US-Iran Ceasefire

2026年4月8日，距离美国总统特朗普设定的军事行动“最后期限”不到一个半小时，美国和伊朗分别宣布接受巴基斯坦提出的停火建议，双方定于4月10日在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡开启为期两周的谈判。伊朗驻巴基斯坦大使穆加达姆将巴基斯坦的斡旋描述为“积极且富有成效的”，并称调停正进入“关键而敏感”的阶段。

3月29日，在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡，沙特阿拉伯外交大臣费萨尔（左一）、巴基斯坦副总理兼外交部长达尔（左二）、土耳其外交部长费丹（右二）、埃及外交部长阿卜杜勒阿提举行会谈（图源：新华社）

巴基斯坦斡旋的地区背景是什么？巴基斯坦积极斡旋调停的动因是什么？停火后的谈判趋势怎样？四川国际传播中心邀请到四川大学巴基斯坦研究中心主任、中国南亚研究中心副研究员张超哲对此进行分析。

此次美以对伊朗战争始于2025年6月美以对伊朗发动的“午夜之锤”行动。至2026年2月底战事再度升级，战争持续至今已逾40天，战事进入焦灼状态：伊朗虽承受重大人员、财产损失，但阿里·哈梅内伊之子穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊顺利接掌伊朗最高权力，国内团结一致抗战能力集聚。与此同时，伊朗还封锁了霍尔木兹海峡，导致全球能源价格飙升，美以颠覆伊朗政权的目标始终没有达到，还招致国际社会广泛批评。

The US-Israeli war against Iran began with Operation Midnight Hammer launched by the US and Israel against Iran in June 2025. By the end of February 2026, the conflict had escalated once again. The war has now lasted more than 40 days and reached a stalemate. Although Iran has suffered heavy casualties and property damage, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has smoothly assumed the supreme leadership of Iran, consolidating domestic unity and capacity for resistance. At the same time, Iran has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, causing global energy prices to soar. The US-Israeli goal of overthrowing Iran's regime has not been achieved, and their actions have drawn widespread international criticism.

2月28日，在以色列特拉维夫，以军发射防空拦截弹（长时间曝光照片）（图源：新华社）

巴基斯坦作为中东邻国、伊斯兰世界唯一拥核国家以及严重依赖中东能源进口的国家，高度期盼尽快结束此次战争。在此背景下，巴基斯坦陆军参谋长穆尼尔成为美伊之间的关键联络人——他利用与特朗普的直接私人关系（在2025年5月印巴交火期间建立的电话沟通渠道），在美伊之间传递信息。

As a neighbor to the Middle East, the sole nuclear-armed state in the Islamic world, and a country heavily dependent on energy imports from the region, Pakistan has a strong desire to see an early end to the war. Against this backdrop, Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, has become a key liaison between the US and Iran — using his direct personal relationship with Trump (a telephone communication channel established during the India-Pakistan firefights in May 2025) to relay messages between the two sides.

3月31日，巴基斯坦副总理兼外长达尔紧急访华，与中方共同发表“五点倡议”，核心内容可概括为“一停二谈三确保”：立即停火止战、尽快开启和谈、确保非军事目标安全、确保航道安全、确保联合国宪章的首要地位。中方的公正立场以及对巴基斯坦的支持，为美伊接受巴基斯坦提出的停火协议发挥了重要作用。

On March 31, Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Mohammad Ishaq Dar, made an urgent visit to China, and together with the Chinese side issued a "five-point Initiative." Its core elements can be summarized as "cease, talks, and ensure": an immediate cessation of hostilities, a start of peace talks as soon as possible, security of nonmilitary targets, security of shipping lanes; and primacy of the United Nations Charter. China's just position and its support for Pakistan played an important role in the US and Iran's acceptance of Pakistan's ceasefire proposal.

巴基斯坦此番主动“挑大梁”，积极参与调停，绝非一时冲动，而是多重战略考量的必然选择。

Pakistan's proactive mediation is by no means impulsive; rather, it is the inevitable result of multiple strategic considerations.

第一，深厚的历史传统与独特优势。巴基斯坦堪称伊斯兰世界中最具调停资质的国家。1971年，正是巴基斯坦协助美国总统特使基辛格秘密转道北京，为1972年尼克松访华和1979年中美建交铺平了道路。2020年，巴基斯坦又促成美塔和谈，推动阿富汗撤军。这种跨越意识形态和地缘阵营的斡旋能力，在伊斯兰世界中独一无二。更重要的是，巴基斯坦同时与美伊双方保持密切关系：巴美有长期军事合作，穆尼尔与特朗普保持着较好的私人友谊；巴伊共享近千公里边境线，巴基斯坦2.4亿人口中近五分之一为什叶派穆斯林。

First, deep historical tradition and unique advantages. Pakistan is arguably the most qualified mediator in the Islamic world. In 1971, Pakistan helped then-US Presidential Envoy Henry Kissinger secretly travel via Beijing, paving the way for Richard Nixon's visit to China and the establishment of Sino-US diplomatic relations. In 2020, Pakistan facilitated the US-Taliban peace talks and the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. This cross-ideological and cross-geopolitical mediation capability is unique in the Islamic world. More importantly, Pakistan maintains close relations with both the US and Iran: Pakistan has long-standing military cooperation with the US, and General Munir enjoys a good personal friendship with Trump; Pakistan shares nearly 1,000 kilometers of border with Iran, and nearly one-fifth of Pakistan's 240 million population are Shia Muslims.

第二，中国的战略支撑与协同。巴基斯坦的斡旋并非单打独斗。3月31日达尔访华发表的“五点倡议”，既是中巴全天候战略合作伙伴关系的生动体现，也为巴方的调停提供了强大的政治支持。中方强调五点倡议“是开放的，欢迎各国和国际组织响应和参与”，《五点倡议》的联合发声使小国调停获得体系性力量支撑，避免被大国博弈碾压。在美以伊战事中，巴基斯坦寻求中方斡旋巴阿边境危机，自身可以聚焦中东事务，这凸显了中巴高效的战略协同。这种“地区大国+全球大国”的协作模式，极大增强了巴方斡旋的合法性和影响力。

Second, China's strategic support and coordination. Pakistan's mediation is not a solo effort. The "Five-Point Initiative" issued during Dar's March 31 visit to China is both a vivid manifestation of the China-Pakistan All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership and a source of strong political support for Pakistan's mediation. China has stressed that the Five-Point Initiative "is open and welcomes the response and participation of all countries and international organizations." The joint issuance of the Five-Point Initiative provides systemic strength to a smaller country's mediation efforts, preventing them from being overwhelmed by major-power rivalry. In the US-Israeli-Iranian war, Pakistan seeks Chinese mediation for the Pakistan-Afghanistan border crisis, allowing it to focus on Middle East affairs — highlighting the highly efficient strategic coordination between China and Pakistan. This model of collaboration between a "regional power and a global power" greatly enhances the legitimacy and influence of Pakistan's mediation.

第三，沙特核保护协议下的最优选择。2025年9月，巴基斯坦与沙特签署共同战略防御协议，协议规定“任何对其中一国的攻击将被视为对双方的攻击”，其核心原则类似北约第五条集体防御条款。巴基斯坦国防部长阿西夫更明确表示，巴方的核计划“将可提供”给沙特——实际上是为沙特撑起了核保护伞。其实巴基斯坦的这种“核保护”更多是做给印度和以色列看的。然而，战事爆发后伊朗将沙特石油设施列为“合法打击目标”，沙特外交大臣发表强硬警告称“忍耐并非没有限度”。沙伊关系紧张。这意味着，如果沙特正式介入战争，巴基斯坦将被迫在遵守对沙特的核安全承诺与避免卷入针对伊朗的战争之间做出痛苦抉择。主动斡旋、推动停火，正是打破这一两难困局的唯一出路。

Third, the best option under the Saudi nuclear protection agreement. In September 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a Joint Strategic Defense Agreement, stipulating that "any attack on either party shall be considered an attack on both parties," with its core principle similar to NATO's Article 5 collective defense clause. Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif further stated that Pakistan's nuclear program "can be made available" to Saudi Arabia — in effect providing a nuclear umbrella for Saudi Arabia. In reality, Pakistan's "nuclear protection" is more a signal to India and Israel. However, after the war broke out, Iran designated Saudi oil facilities as "legitimate targets." Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister issued a strong warning that "patience is not limitless." Saudi-Iranian relations became tense. This means that if Saudi Arabia were to formally enter the war, Pakistan would be forced to make a painful choice between honoring its nuclear security commitment to Saudi Arabia and avoiding being drawn into a war against Iran. Proactively mediating to promote a ceasefire is the only way out of this dilemma.

3月9日，在伊朗首都德黑兰革命广场，民众参加集会表达对伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的忠诚（图源：新华社）

第四，国内能源安全与经济生存的迫切诉求。巴基斯坦超过80%的石油需求依赖进口，年能源进口额高达160亿至180亿美元。截至2026年3月，其外汇储备仅约217亿美元。霍尔木兹海峡关闭后，国际油价飙升至每桶100美元以上，巴基斯坦每月石油进口账单激增至6亿美元。巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹被迫推出一系列紧缩措施：公务车辆的燃油补贴将削减50%（救护车和公共汽车不在此列）；50%的公共部门员工将居家办公（提供必要服务的员工除外）；政府部门的开支将削减20%。在这种严峻形势下，推动美伊停火、恢复霍尔木兹海峡通航，对巴基斯坦而言不仅是外交成就，更是经济生存的需要。

Fourth, urgent domestic energy security and economic survival needs. Pakistan relies on imports for over 80% of its oil needs, with an annual energy import bill of $16-18 billion. As of March 2026, its foreign exchange reserves stood at only about $21.7 billion. After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, and Pakistan's monthly oil import bill jumped to $600 million. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was forced to introduce a series of austerity measures: a 50% cut in fuel subsidies for official vehicles (excluding ambulances and buses); 50% of public sector employees to work from home (excluding those providing essential services); and a 20% reduction in government department spending. Under such grim circumstances, pushing for a US-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is not only a diplomatic achievement for Pakistan but also a necessity for its economic survival.

第五，中等强国雄心与内部权力的投射。因印巴冲突中的优异表现和第27条宪法修正案，巴基斯坦陆军参谋长穆尼尔被授予元帅和国防军总司令头衔以及核力量指挥权。此次调停成为其“从幕后走向台前”的国际首秀。若能斡旋成功，不仅可巩固国内权威，更能极大提升巴基斯坦在伊斯兰世界乃至全球的话语权。作为伊斯兰世界唯一的拥核国家，巴基斯坦一直渴望成为真正的“中等强国”——在美中之间、沙特与伊朗之间、东西方之间扮演不可替代的平衡者角色。此次斡旋若能促成历史性和谈，无疑将奠定其作为全球调解力量的地位。

Fifth, projection of middle-power ambition and domestic authority. Due to his performance in the India-Pakistan conflict and the adoption of the 27th Constitutional Amendment, General Syed Asim Munir has been awarded the rank of Field Marshal and the position of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, as well as command over nuclear forces. This mediation effort has become his international debut, "stepping from behind the curtain into the spotlight." Successfully brokering a deal would not only consolidate his domestic authority but also greatly enhance Pakistan's voice in the Islamic world and globally. As the sole nuclear-armed state in the Islamic world, Pakistan has long aspired to become a true "middle power" — playing an irreplaceable balancing role between the US and China, between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and between East and West. If this mediation leads to a historic peace agreement, it will undoubtedly establish Pakistan as a global mediation power.

尽管停火协议已经达成，但未来美伊谈判走势并不乐观。

Although a ceasefire agreement has been reached, the prospects for future US-Iran negotiations are not optimistic.

首先，特朗普的反复无常是一大变数。特朗普此前多次声称美军“彻底摧毁”了伊朗核能力，但国防情报局的机密评估却显示空袭仅“延迟伊朗核计划数月”。特朗普4月7日刚刚向伊朗发出新的威胁，称“今晚，整个文明将消亡，永不复返”，今天就宣布接受和谈建议。就特朗普的风格，一旦双方谈判受阻，特朗普完全可能再次挥舞军事大棒，以转移国内政治注意力。

4月7日，一名示威者在美国首都华盛顿的白宫前手举标语（图源：新华社）

First, Trump's unpredictability is a major variable. Trump has repeatedly claimed that the US military "completely destroyed" Iran's nuclear capabilities, but a classified assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency reportedly showed that the airstrikes only "delayed Iran's nuclear program by a few months." On April 7, just one day before accepting the ceasefire proposal, Trump issued a new threat to Iran, saying "Tonight, the whole civilization will die, never to be brought back again." Given Trump's style, if negotiations hit a snag, he could easily resort to military pressure again to divert domestic political attention.

其次，朗遭美方欺骗后的防范心理。近年来，伊朗已经多次被美国欺骗，多次在双方谈判的同时美国对伊朗动手。此次伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在美以空袭中遇害后，伊朗对美国的任何提议都保持高度警惕。一名伊朗官员早前就表示，伊朗主流观点认为“美国提出谈判请求是又一次欺骗，其目的是乘人不备时再次发动袭击”。此次伊朗提出十点方案，核心诉求包括美国解除所有制裁、释放冻结资产、撤出作战部队，并强调“谈判是战场的延续”——可见伊朗已做好谈不成就继续打的准备。

Second, Iran's sense of precaution against "being deceived" is unprecedentedly heightened. In recent years, Iran has been deceived multiple times by the US, with the US launching attacks against Iran while the two sides were negotiating. After Iran's former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in US-Israeli airstrikes, Iran has become highly vigilant toward any US proposal. An Iranian official said earlier that the prevailing view in Iran is that "the US request for negotiations is another deception, aimed at launching another attack when we are off guard." Iran has now proposed a 10-point plan, with core demands including the lifting of all US sanctions, the release of frozen assets, and the withdrawal of US combat forces, while stressing that "negotiations are a continuation of the battlefield" — indicating that Iran is prepared to continue fighting if talks fail.

第三，以色列的搅局意愿不可忽视。停火生效后，以色列仍在持续打击伊朗。以色列表示对美国接受巴基斯坦提出的临时停火协议担忧，并声称以色列的名单上仍有更多目标，希望通过在伊朗的军事行动实现。对以色列来说，其终极目标是彻底摧毁伊朗核能力，任何可能导致伊朗“体面退场”的外交安排都不符合其战略利益。在接下来的两周谈判中，以色列极可能通过加大军事施压来破坏和谈进程。

Third, Israel's disruptive intentions cannot be ignored. Even after the ceasefire took effect, Israel continued its strikes on Iran. Israel has expressed concern over the US acceptance of Pakistan's proposed temporary ceasefire, claiming it still has more targets on its list and seeking to achieve its objectives through military action in Iran. For Israel, the ultimate goal is to completely destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities. Any diplomatic arrangement that would allow Iran to make a "dignified exit" runs counter to its strategic interests. During the two weeks of negotiations, Israel is highly likely to disrupt the peace process by intensifying military pressure.

3月24日，在以色列中部城市特拉维夫，应急人员在导弹袭击现场处置（图源：新华社）

总之，巴基斯坦在斡旋中展现出的外交手腕和战略定力令人印象深刻，但能否真正将美伊两国拉出战争的泥潭，仍需持续观察。两周的停火窗口既是一次宝贵的机遇，也可能只是暴风雨前的短暂宁静。

In summary, Pakistan has demonstrated impressive diplomatic skill and strategic resolve in its mediation efforts. However, whether it can truly pull the US and Iran out of the quagmire of war remains to be seen. The two-week ceasefire window is both a valuable opportunity and potentially just the calm before the storm.

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